<P align=center><SPAN STYLE="font-size:large">The Great Bush Economy Bet</SPAN>
    <br><I>You want a piece of the action? Read on...</I>
    <P>I've made the following long-term bet with []; he claims the economy will [tank/thrive] if Bush is reelected, while I remain certain that it will [thrive/tank] instead.
    <P>We've got ten bucks on the line. This is serious stuff. Here are the rules:

    <DIV style="border:1px ridge silver; padding: 1.0em; margin-left: 1.0em; margin-right: 1.0em; margin-top: 1.0em; margin-bottom: 1.0em;">
    <P>IF Bush wins in November,
    <br>AND there are no major terror attacks in the US,
    <br>AND no new, major conflicts overseas,
    <br>AND if there are no significant tax increases:
    <P>THEN on June 31, 2006, the majority of the following statements will be true:

    <DIV STYLE="font-weight=bold">
    <P>1) The latest available budget deficit, as a percentage of GDP, will be smaller than the deficit <a href="www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2004/pdf/hist.pdf" target=_blank>currently predicted here</a>.
    <P>2) The budget debt, as a percentage of GDP, will be smaller than the debt currently predicted in the same document.
    <P>3) The DOW will exceed 10,800.
    <P>The following indicators will be at, or better than, their average for Clinton's second term:
    <p>4) Unemployment (seasonally adjusted)
    <BR>[<a href="http://www.bls.gov/opub/gp/laugp.htm"  target=_blank>target=4.4%</a>]
    <p>5) Federal Funds Interest rate
    <Br>[<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/fedfund.txt"  target=_blank>target=5.50%</a>]
    <p>6) 10 Year Treasury rate
    <br>[<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/a/tcm10y.txt"  target=_blank>target=5.82%</a>]
    <p>7) Inflation
    <BR>[<a href="http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/cpi_nr.htm"  target=_blank>target=2.35</a>]
    <p>8) GDP growth (real)
    <BR>[<a href="http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/nipa/T1t1t1l1a"  target=_blank>target=4.23%</a>]
    <p>9) Personal income (per capita, average of yearly percent change 97-00)
    <BR>[<a href="http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/beapi/a00200"  target=_blank>target=5.41</a>]

    <P>Loser pays ten bucks to a charity of the winner's choice.
    <P>You want a piece of this? Just send an email to <a href="mailto:BushBet@fecesflingingmonkey.com">BushBet@FecesFlingingMonkey.com</a> and tell me which side of the bet you want; if somebody else wants the other side, I'll put you in touch with each other and you can work it out for yourselves. If you like the bet, feel free to <a href="http://www.fecesflingingmonkey.com/bet.htm" target=_blank>copy the code</a> and put it on your own website.
    <p><SPAN STYLE="color:gray"><I>(Technical note: Yeah, we know that we have 'averaged averages' here to calculate our targets, but that's close enough for a bar bet!)</I></span>